classic belmont races

this Saturday at Belmont Big Brown could be the first “American” Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, he’s one of the best horses I’ve ever seen but he’s not as much of a lock as people think. I don’t doubt that he can handle the distance (top 3 year olds don’t run 12 furlongs until the Belmont) but anything can happen especially with the mystery behind Japan’s Casino Drive who has only raced twice.

Anyways here are some vids that illustrate how tough the Belmont is:

2004 – Smarty Jones had the lead but tired out on the stretch as Birdstone came in to spoil his Triple Crown bid.

2007 – Everyone one is itching for a Curlin / Big Brown showdown which most likely will not happen. Curlin’s earned over 8.7 million dollars in his short career and no doubted that he was the best American horse in 2007, however filly Rags to Riches (the half sister of Casino Drive, they share the same mom) beat him out in the stretch. One of the best finishes I’ve seen

1973 – Secretariat clinching the triple crown with a huge win over 30 lengths. Its tempting to go for an all out lead like Secretariat and I obviously don’t know Big Brown as well as his people but they gotta decide whether to go for it early (he may tire out and have the same fate as Smarty Jones) or to conserve energy until the turn (like Rags to Riches)

Will post Casino Drive’s only two races later

distracting disaster

My mind was elsewhere this weekend and it reflected in my pony betting
as I only hit 36% for a total of profit of…………

$1.05

Got hit hardest at Hastings where I went 4-18, 1-9 on Sunday. To make
matters worse, my batteries on my camera ran out when Seagal was
taking photos on Saturday; and he was wearing a green fu man chu
outift. So I apologize but you’ll have to settle with this one:

Weekend totals

Hollywood Park
total profit 53.75 (May 30 14.45, May 31 29.05, Jun 10.25)
11-23 .478

Hastings
total profit -56.50 (May 31 -15.25, Jun 1 -41.25)
4-18 .222

Emerald Downs (mostly used for experimental betting)
total profit 3.80 (May 30 -16.00, May 31 15.00, Jun 1 4.80)
2-6 .333

Overall Stats

Hollywood Park
total profit 268.05
21-43 .488

Hastings
total profit -6.30
12-37 .324

Emerald Downs
total profit 78.00
8-17 .471

total profit earned 339.75

My only smart move of the weekend was choosing not to bet on the
favorite in Hasting’s 7th race on Sunday. I was going to go heavy on
Trinidad Bay, but the jockey was Stephanie Fedora, a woman, so the
chauvinist in me balanced things out by not betting on her.

Will caculate my PBS and VOTST tomorrow, I assume they’ll be much lower