ppl update: ready for Del Mar & new sponsor

K I had a horrible weekend at hastings park (blame it on the friends, I realize more and more that pony betting is a solitary thing) but been practicing a lot with Del Mar and I’m ready to start my bets beginning this friday.

Will add up my Hollywood Total from the season and give a recap of the disaster at Hastings tomorrow. In the meantime enjoy this vid from our new sponsor

So sexy

hastings recap july 12-13

Here is a tale of two bet strategies. One works, the other doesn’t.
One I prepped for the nigth before, while the other I prepped hungover at the track just an hour before 1st post.

You figure out which is which

July 12
Bankroll: 399.20
Wagered: 87
Returned: 433
Bets Hit: 3-5

R1: $5 EX 4w2; $2EX 4w1,6 4-6 HIT return 19.50
R2: $5 WIN 4; $5 EX 3w4
R3: No Bet
R4: $40 WP 4 4 HIT return 374
R5: $1 Tri Bet (18 Bets)
R6 No Bet
R7: $2EX 5w 1,3,6,9,10 5-9 HIT return 39.50
R8: No Bet
R9: Doing shots at the bar with track workers

July 13
Bankroll: 745,20
Wagered: 102
Returned 67.10
Bets Hit: 2-8

R1: $5 WIN 1
R2: $5 EX BOX 2,4
R3: $5 WIN 6, $5 EX 1w6
R4: $5 EX 5w6,7 5-7 HIT return 32.50
R5: $5 6 WIN
R6: $1 TRI 3,4w3,4wALL (12 Bets) 3-4-5 HIT Return 34.60
R7: $10 WIN 3,7 HORRIBLE PICKS
R8: $10 WIN 3,5
R9:Finished 4th Ceasar and biked home

Hastings Bankroll 710.30 June 27 – July 13

July 12 is a perfect example on how to bet. I selective on which races to wager on and I went heavy on my prime bet.

Sunday the 13th was a disaster. I bet on every race on , which is a no no. My plan is to only bet 5 max on what I’m confident on and just small plays on the rest to keep entertained. The only race I was confident in was Race 6 and I only bet a total of $12 and I hit. Shitty return. Instead of making 12 $1 bets, I should’ve just dropped $20 on the 3,4 Exacta which would’ve returned $140

Then $40 in total was put on randoms in R7 & R8 in an effort to win back money.

PYRAMID BETTING DOESN’T WORK

out

mozambique

PPL Pre pick Key horse hits again. Mozambique in the 4th at Hastings paid out 29.20M. Another product of Swift Thoroughbreds, I owe them large. Earlier this year I hit a decent bet with Daymaker

$40 was bet on a WP for a $374 dollar payout

Their flag is so cool

More details on a decent day at Hollywood and Hastings, but now I’m off to a patio party

cheers

p.s. Stuff White People Like #19 on New York Times Best Seller list after only one week

ppl pre picks July 12

No pre picks for Hollywood today as with only two days left I’m going
to experiment with the Pick 4. Anyways here are my Hastings morning
line favorites to bet against

Race 2: Artic Star 2
Good speed, but inconsistent as he finshed in last place after a win
with a beyer of 75. Looking for the Willie Katchem 3 or Money X Change
4 for the upset.

Race 3: Gotta Find Bubba 7
Two year old favorites at Hastings don’t seem to hit. Will watch the
board for this one and take a Reasonable Longshot (RLS)

Race 6: Slews the Believer 2
Heavy fav his last two race in which he hit one (barely) but I don’t
see why. The 1,3, or 6 are decent contenders, will look to making a
exotic bet here leaving Slew out of the Win

Race 7 Known as Lu
Two year old stakes and an Emerald Downs shipper is the fav. Too many
contenders here to make this a landslide. Will watch board and
probably take the next two favorites

I have no key horse for this card. The closest is in the 4th with the
Mozambique 4

Oh and Curlin on turf at belmont in the 9th

hollywood recap july 11

ppl
pre picks for july 11

Was pretty drunk when i came to the track by I still hung in there and
did well. Only hit one bet but it was my Key Horse and thats all I
needed to turn a decent profit

Total Wagered: 54
Returned: 96.90
Bets Hit: 1-6

I was correct to bet against the heavy favorite in the first race, but
I wish I had just made a win bet on the 3 horse who paid 17.40.
Instead it was Daily Double bet and my picks didn’t come in for the
2nd leg. Felt confident on my key horse Lit’sgoodlookngray in the 5th
and was happy to see him at 5/2. Keyed him in 15 $1 bets for the tri
and hit paying 96.90. I just took reasonable longshots after that and
tried to sober up for the walk home

ppl pre picks: hollywood july 11

only looked through the form on my bus ride to work, so these are just some quick picks and I might not make it to the track in time because I’m going to watch a minor league baseball game with racing sushi. Anyways enjoy

R1: Bet against the favorite Glory N Thehighest 4
Will probably start of the card with a DD bet

R1: 1,3,6
R2: 2,4,6 (will only pick 2 pending on odds)

R3:Don’t like this race, but going with 4 Spriggzee. An 8 year old horse with only two works since May

R4: Figure it will be a duel between the two favs 6 Moves Like a Cat and 8 Stag On the Run. Going with the 6 or a RLS closer

R5:My Key Horse for the card. 5 Lit’sgoodlookngray is too fast.

R6: Tough but going with 8 Isabella’s Crown or an RLS

R7: 4 or 5

R8:1,9 or 10

cheers and I’m off to watch racing sushi

PBS calculation as of July 10

for those who don’t know I measure my success at the track not by total bankroll or ROI but by PBS (Pony Betting Salary)

This stat factors in total profit along with the amount of time invested at the track. Basic handicapping theory says to only bet when the odds are in your favor, but say all your picks end up being overbet by post time? Then dam you wasted 6 hours of your life. Sure you were disciplined but man you could have spent that time watching kangaroos box people or cutting your dog’s toenails.

I could’ve watched this instead of lose all my money

Here is the formula btw

Total Profit Earned \ Hours Spent at the Track = Y

Y x 40 = Z

Z x 52 = PBS

And now my stats since June 27

Total Profit = 1238.95 (Hollywood 791.50 Hastings 299.20 Emerald 148.25)
Hours Spent at the Track = 39 (please note that I do include an hour the night before that I spend studying stats)

1238.25/39 = 31.77

31.77 x 40 = 1270.8

1270.8 x 52 = 66,081.60

Therefore if I had devoted my full time towards pony betting I would have an annual salary of $66,081. So this weekend saw my salary dip 13K from $79,664.

Gross! That’s like being being downgraded from an “assistant executive post coordinator” and to an “assistant to the executive post coordinator”

emerald downs july 6 recap

ok I’ll admit, I wasn’t as composed about the Hollywood loss as I wrote in the last post.

So I avoided Hollywood all together on Sunday, plus I showed up to the track with only one race left. Luckily Emerald Downs had a couple of races left. I’ve actually done well at Emerald but have just used experimental bets there. And whats worse is that I did pretty good last Sunday making me want to focus on 3rd track (yikes)

Here were my bets

Race 8
Wagered 16 on a Trifecta
Returned 155.25

I felt that either the 4 horse Litdeworldonfire or the 1 Poker Gift would win, but I couldn’t decide between the two so for once I decided to go for the Tri. Here was my bet

WIN: 1,4
PLACE: 1,4,10 (10 was a Closer that I felt could sneak in, but not win)
SHOW: 1,2,4,6,9,10

Thats 16 bets and 4-1-6 came in paying 155.25. SWEET
bet paid 168.70 at the actual but the payouts and odds come out different win you bet via satellite

Race 9
Wagered 20 on a SHOW
Returned 29

Ok so I wanted to see how it felt like to make a bet like someone did on Zenyatta. And man I never felt like a bigger pussy. Well no that was that time in high school when I wouldn’t climb that fence, but man my ankle really did hurt. A little bit. My pick the 5 horse Call Columbo (whom I actually won with back in May) actually won the race and would’ve returned me $100. Instead I got $29. But I’ll try more experiments on these wimpy bets and see that maybe in the long run they maybe ain’t so bad.

Anyways thats all for now

hollywood july 5th recap

not really keeping detailed stats on these Yankee tracks like I am on Hastings, but Hollywood has brought me much riches this year. However on one of the biggest race days, that featured several G1 races, I got shut out going 0-5.

Learned a couple of things here
- Discipline! I only lost $50 not making more than $10 a bet. Trust me it was tempting to pyramid bet a race.
- Heavy favorites usually hit in big races and at a low price. So sometimes its not worth it to bet against them or for them. Reportedly someone bet 200K on Zenyatta to show. She’s the best American Filly right now. Her SHOW paid 2.10 meaning this guy or gal won 10K. But dam (no pun intended) that goes against everything in the book.
- I learned about the importance of paying attention to betting pools

The Daily Double for Races 6 & 7 paid more (39.00) than the Pick 3 (27.10) for Races 5,6, & 7.

Why?

Zenyatta was probably keyed in the 5th race with everyone at the track making this bet.

Morale of the story: AVOID races with horses like Zenyatta, unless of course you have 200K

Anyways there’s more to learn I’m sure. I’ve still made over 2K at Hollywood. all in preparation for Del Mar. So this 50 ain’t so bad.

hastings park july 5-6 recap

quick recaps again, but I am getting better and better at this park. Been getting tons of advice and tips on how to bet Hastings and its working.

Here’s my stats

Bankroll going into July 5th weekend: 332.70 (all of this starting from my 100 dollar climate action check).

July 5th
Bankroll: 332.70
Wagered: 67
Returned: 111
Bets Hits: 2-6

I only hit 2 of 6 bets in this card, but that’s all I needed for a profit. For the first time at Hastings I felt confident on a longshot with Spice Trader in the second race. Spice Trader paid out 38.40 and returned 96.00 for me on a $5 bet. His odds were 17-1, but I had him at 6-1. By the way the odds for Columbus (another spice trader) to hit India were 8-5. Proving that favorites don’t always hit

Wrong India jerk

July 6
Bankroll: 376.70
Wagered:22
Returned: 44.50
Bets Hit: 2-2

I spent my entire work week unsuccessfully hitting on a coworker, so I felt guilty and actually went into work on Sunday. But I got to Hastings Park in time to bet against the heavy favorite in the Chris Loseth Handicap and my luck was much better. Star Prospector had the top jock and raced in some sweet races in Alberta, but this race was 1 1/16 and Star Prospector had not done well in routes. I took the top two closer for two $5 win bets and Krazy Koffee hit paying 10.10 for a 25.25 return on my bet. I hit an extactor on my last bet that paid 19.30. However it was from a 12.00 box bet, proving that sometimes boxes just aren’t worth it. I’ll approach exactor betting differently next time

My bankroll at Hastings Park is now at 399.20. Friday afternoon racing starts this Friday but I’ll probably just be a Saturday Sunday guy and focus on Del Mar for the next two months

p.s. I will open an account soon just for my poker and pony betting habits